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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2022

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHEAST COLORADO...THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS
PANHANDLES AND WESTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce strong gusts and
hail from eastern New Mexico and southeast Colorado into the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and western Kansas late Wednesday
afternoon and evening.

...Eastern NM/Southeast CO/Western KS and the OK/TX Panhandles...

An upper ridge will be in place over the western Plains on
Wednesday. Across the western U.S., a mid/upper shortwave impulse
over the Lower CO Valley will weaken as it spreads eastward across
the southern Rockies during the afternoon and into the
central/southern Plains during the evening. This will result in some
dampening of the upper ridge while a weak lee low develops over
southeast CO. A dryline will extend south/southwest from the CO/KS
border into eastern NM and southwest TX. 

To the east of the dryline, southerly low-level flow will transport
shallow, modest moisture northward across TX/OK/KS. Surface
dewpoints will generally be in the upper 40s to low 50s east of the
dryline. Strong heating and mixing through peak heating will result
in a dry sub-cloud layer with inverted-v forecast thermodynamic
profiles showing steep low-level lapse rates. Despite a
dry/well-mixed boundary-layer, sufficient midlevel moisture will
overspread the region as modest forcing for ascent increases with
the approach of the trough. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support
MLCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg and a narrow corridor of weak to
little inhibition should develop between 21-03z. 

Deep-layer flow will not be very strong, and most guidance shows
less than 25 kt flow between 700-500 mb, increasing with height
thereafter. Nevertheless, effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt
should foster at least briefly organized, high-based convection.
Given the deeply mixed/dry boundary-layer, evaporative processes
will support sporadic strong gusts. As convection develops further
east, forecast hodographs beco*e elongated within an area of
modestly better moisture and a couple of stronger cells could
produce hail. The severe threat should wane by 03z with increasing
inhibition and any remaining convection beco*ing elevated with time.

..Leitman.. 04/26/2022