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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2022

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...SUMMARY...
A severe thunderstorm or two may develop late Thursday afternoon or
evening from northwest Texas into western Oklahoma and south-central
Kansas. If a storm can develop, large hail, strong gusts and a
tornado will be possible.

...Northwest TX into western OK and south-central KS...

Conditional severe thunderstorm potential will exist across parts of
the southern Plains late Thursday afternoon into the evening, and a
Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been introduced with the initial
Day 3 Outlook.

An upper ridge will be centered over the Upper Midwest to eastern
portions of the southern Plains on Thursday. A weak mid/upper
shortwave impulse will reside over OK/KS early in the day before
shifting east quickly. Some showers and elevated thunderstorms
associated with the shortwave impulse and warm advection may be
ongoing across northern OK/eastern KS and the lower MO Valley at the
beginning of the period. This activity should develop east/southeast
across the Ozarks through the day. 

Further west, an upper trough along the Pacific coast will shift
east across the interior West. Most medium range deterministic and
ensemble guidance indicate a subtle lead shortwave impulse emanating
from the western trough will eject east from the southern/central
Rockies into the southern/central Plains during the late
afternoon/evening. As this occurs, a lee low will modestly deepen
over eastern CO and a surface dryline will mix eastward into
west-central KS and western OK/TX. South/southeasterly low-level
flow will transport low 60s dewpoints northward across TX/OK/KS
ahead of the dryline. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will be
in place atop the moistening boundary-layer aiding in moderate
destabilization by peak heating. 

Point forecast soundings indicate a stout capping inversion for much
of the period. However, continued warm advection and increasing
moisture, co*bined with subtle forcing associated with the lead
shortwave impulse may sufficiently erode the cap in a narrow
corridor near the dryline. If this occurs, a couple of severe
thunderstorms capable of large hail, strong gusts and perhaps a
tornado will be possible. Guidance varies on how far east the
dryline will develop and the Marginal risk area may need to be
adjusted east or west in subsequent outlooks. 

Strong warm advection will continue through the evening and
overnight hours. Elevated thunderstorms are likely across eastern
KS/OK into the Ozarks. Some of this activity may produce small hail,
but overall severe potential appears limited at this time.

..Leitman.. 04/26/2022