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Mesoscale Discussion 0565
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0803 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022

Areas affected...Far southern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 260103Z - 260300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of locally damaging wind gusts and sporadic large
hail will spread southward across far southern Texas this evening.
Watch issuance will not be needed.

DISCUSSION...A large convective cluster with occasional embedded
supercell structures will continue moving southward across far
southern Texas this evening. Ahead of the convective outflow, lower
70s dewpoints and modest midlevel lapse rates are contributing to a
strongly unstable airmass. Despite weak flow in the 2-5 km layer,
easterly low-level flow beneath 20-30 knots of midlevel westerly
flow is supporting 30-45 knots 0-6 km bulk shear per the latest CRP
VWP data. This enhanced deep-layer shear co*bined with the strong
instability will support loosely organized updrafts embedded in the
larger convective cluster. Locally damaging wind gusts with
continued upscale growth may occur, and sporadic large hail will
also remain possible. Watch issuance will not be needed owing to the
localized nature of the threat.

..Weinman/Mosier.. 04/26/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON   26039839 26329907 26639939 27159953 27289882 27209803
            27029773 26519752 25849757 26039839