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Mesoscale Discussion 0564
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0531 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022

Areas affected...Parts of far southern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 252231Z - 260030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally strong wind gusts are
possible across far southern Texas into this evening. Watch issuance
is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations show a northeast-southwest
oriented co*posite outflow boundary across parts of far southern
Texas. Over the last several hours, generally anafrontal convection
has limited the risk of surface-based storms, though the latest
radar mosaic depicts isolated convection increasing in intensity
ahead of the boundary. Here, diurnal heating of a moist airmass
characterized by lower 70s dewpoints is supporting surface-based
inflow, where effective bulk shear is 30-40 knots. Any transient
supercell structures that can persist prior to being undercut by the
outflow boundary will pose a risk of isolated large hail and locally
strong wind gusts. The localized nature of the threat precludes
watch issuance.

..Weinman/Mosier.. 04/25/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON   27409715 26929736 26529784 26349859 26519930 27699990
            27929947 28089824 28359734 28259699 27929685 27409715