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Mesoscale Discussion 0563
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022

Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Ohio...northwestern
Pennsylvania...western New York state

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 251939Z - 252145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity may intense further while developing
northeastward in a narrow corridor near/southeast of Lake Erie
through 5-6 PM EDT.  It still appears unlikely that a severe weather
watch will be needed, but a couple of these storms may be
acco*panied by a few strong gusts approaching severe limits, and
perhaps some potential for a brief tornado.

DISCUSSION...A mid-level cyclonic vorticity center has been rapidly
migrating north-northeastward at 50+ kt, and is now passing north of
the Cleveland OH area.  This has been acco*panied by a sustained
small, elongated cluster of convection, including more recent
embedded thunderstorm development on its southern/southwestern
periphery, which appears likely to spread along and southwest of the
southern shores of Lake Erie into western New York state through
21-22Z.

Although, to this point, mixed-layer CAPE along this corridor
remains weak (on the order of 250-500 J/kg), low-level lapse rates
have beco*e quite steep inland of the lake breeze in response to
insolation and mixing.  And Rapid Refresh output suggest that
substantial modification of this environment could lead to
increasing CAPE during the next few hours.  This may beco*e
sufficient to support further thunderstorm development and
intensification.  

The intersection of this activity with the lake breeze could provide
a focus for a supercell structure or two with some risk for a
tornado.  Otherwise, locally strong surface gusts approaching severe
limits appears the primary potential severe hazard, in the presence
of deep-layer southwesterly ambient mean flow on the order of 40+
kt.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 04/25/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   43447836 43077721 41797848 41307941 40008217 40638202
            41678130 42227972 42687885 43447836