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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
COASTAL/SOUTH TEXAS...AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS AND WESTERN NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds remain possible from the Lower Great Lakes
to south Texas this afternoon and early evening. Isolated severe
hail may also occur in south Texas.

...20Z Update...
Severe probabilities have been trimmed behind an ongoing band of
thunderstorms extending across TX into the Southeast. Isolated
strong/gusty winds and hail will remain possible as this convection
sags southward across parts of coastal/south TX through the rest of
the afternoon and continuing into the evening.

Farther north, low-topped convection extends from the TN Valley into
the OH Valley along and ahead of a cold front. With stronger
mid-level flow present over these regions and steepened low-level
lapse rates, occasional damaging winds should continue to be the
main threat as this activity spreads eastward over the next few
hours. See Mesoscale Discussion 563 for more information on the
near-term severe threat across OH into northwestern PA and western
NY.

..Gleason.. 04/25/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022/

...Central/south Texas to Louisiana/Mississippi...
Scattered to numerous convection parallels a cold front that will
generally continue to settle south-southeastward across the region
today. A few stronger storms could be focused across southeast
Texas, southern Louisiana, and/or southern Mississippi, but the most
robust convection this afternoon will likely be focused across
central/southern Texas, especially in the general vicinity of the
Rio Grande.

Rich boundary-layer moisture characterized by low 70s surface dew
points will support a plume of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon
near and ahead of the front. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected to persist and intensify during the afternoon. This setup
should yield several slow-moving multicell clusters capable of
locally strong gusts along with isolated severe hail, particularly
in closer proximity to the Rio Grande where mid-level lapse rates
are steeper.

...Tennessee/Kentucky to the Lower Great Lakes...
Scattered mostly weak convection generally coincides with an
eastward-moving cold front. Upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints
precede the front and associated convection, with an
expanding/deepening pre-frontal cumulus field coincident with
mid/high-level cloud breaks. This will likely allow for renewed
thunderstorm development and intensification this afternoon,
including areas spanning east-central Kentucky/Tennessee into Ohio,
northwest Pennsylvania, and western New York. The strongest
deep-layer winds will tend to lag the cold front, with an exception
being in closer proximity to the Lower Great Lakes where stronger
deep-layer winds/shear will exist within the warm sector. Sufficient
boundary-layer warmth/destabilization and moderately strong
low/mid-level winds will support the possibility of semi-organized
clusters capable of localized wind damage through around sunset.