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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An active period for severe thunderstorm potential is expected late
this week. Beginning Day 4/Thu, a broad upper ridge will be in place
centered over the Plains. Meanwhile, an upper trough near the
Pacific coast will shift east toward the Intermountain and Southwest
regions. Guidance indicates a weak shortwave impulse will be located
over the central/southern Plains early Thursday and some ongoing
showers/thunderstorms are possible in a low/mid-level warm advection
regime. At the surface, a lee low will develop in response to the
eastward-advancing western trough. Southerly low-level flow will
continue to spread Gulf moisture northward across the
central/southern Plains and 60s F dewpoints will be co*mon east of a
dryline from central/north TX into central/eastern OK and central
KS. Uncertainty persists for Thursday, with severe potential
appearing quite conditional. Morning convection, capping and
nebulous forcing all are contributing to low predictability and will
preclude severe probabilities at this time. 

On Day 5/Friday, the western upper trough will eject eastward into
the Plains. This will induce stronger lee cyclone development across
eastern CO/western KS with a dryline developing eastward into
central KS/OK by late afternoon/evening. Several days of southerly
Gulf return flow will allow for mid/upper 60s dewpoints to the east
of the dryline, potentially as far north as far south-central NE. A
plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will reside across the region
atop a moist warm sector. This should generally support moderate
destabilization, though guidance does indicate widespread cloud
cover and areas of showers/thunderstorms in this low-level warm
advection regime could limit heating. Nevertheless, increasing
ascent by late afternoon/evening will support thunderstorm develop
near the surface dryline. While deep-layer flow will increase during
the evening, forecast effective shear is somewhat modest, though
adequate for organized convection, including supercells. All severe
hazards will be possible with this activity from late Friday
afternoon into the nighttime hours extending from far north Texas
through central/eastern OK/KS (along the dryline) and south-central
NE (closer to the surface triple point).

By Day 6/Saturday, severe potential will shift east toward the
Ozarks vicinity as the upper trough pivots northeast from the
southern/central Plains toward the mid/upper MS Valley. Saturday
severe thunderstorm potential will be influenced by the evolution of
activity on Friday/Friday night. Forecast guidance indicates quite a
bit of convection ongoing Saturday morning from the mid/lower MO
Valley into eastern OK and the ArkLaTex vicinity. If this scenario
unfolds, then severe potential may be muted by lack of
destabilization to the east of an eastward-progressing surface cold
front. Low confidence/high uncertainty will preclude severe
probabilities at this time. 

Predictability remains low through the end of the period as guidance
varies considerably with the evolution of the central U.S. trough
beyond Saturday.