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Mesoscale Discussion 1802
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022

Areas affected...Portions of western NY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 191915Z - 192145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Occasional strong/gusty winds and marginally severe hail
may occur with thunderstorms this afternoon. Watch issuance is not
expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently begun to strengthen and
increase in coverage along a cold front across parts of southern ON
and Lake Ontario. Cool mid-level temperatures associated with a
shortwave trough are expected to overspread parts of western NY
through the rest of the afternoon. This region should experience
some recovery in the wake of earlier convection, with recent visible
satellite imagery showing a narrow corridor of clearing occurring
across southwestern NY. Even though instability is forecast to
remain fairly weak, with MLCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg, it should
be sufficient to support surface-based convection. The VWP from KBUF
shows mostly west-southwesterly winds gradually strengthening with
height from the surface through 8 km AGL. Around 30-40 kt of mostly
speed shear should be enough for updraft organization, with both
multicells and marginal supercells possible. Occasional strong/gusty
winds and perhaps severe hail up to 1 inch in diameter may occur
with the more robust cores as convection spreads east-southeastward
over the next few hours, especially where greater surface heating
can occur. The overall severe threat will likely remain quite
isolated owing to the limited instability, and watch issuance is not
expected at this time.

..Gleason/Grams.. 09/19/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   42497911 42717912 42897900 43247913 43427850 43377774
            43307742 43327691 43507651 43657626 43867631 44127618
            44647551 45017487 44847450 44107517 43317570 42757656
            42407771 42377860 42497911