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Mesoscale Discussion 1801
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New
England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 191752Z - 192015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur as
thunderstorms move eastward this afternoon. Watch issuance appears
unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Loosely organized clusters will continue to spread
eastward across parts of central/eastern NY and southern New England
this afternoon. This activity is being aided by a shortwave trough
moving over these regions. Recent VWPs from KBGM/KENX show gradually
strengthening and veering winds with height through mid levels. This
is supporting around 25-30 kt of deep-layer shear and modest
thunderstorm organization. Even with mostly cloudy skies, some
filtered diurnal heating has occurred with occasional cloud breaks.
Weak destabilization, with MLCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg, has
occurred ahead of the ongoing convection. Poor mid-level lapse rates
observed on the 12Z ALB sounding should temper instability from
increasing much more through the rest of the afternoon. At this
point, isolated strong to damaging winds should be the main threat
given the mainly linear mode expected. There will be some potential
for a greater concentration of near-severe (45-55 mph) winds across
eastern NY and vicinity where the best heating has occurred so far,
and where high-resolution guidance suggests convection will
gradually increase in coverage and intensity. Still, the overall
severe wind threat will probably remain limited by the weak
instability, and watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

..Gleason/Grams.. 09/19/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON   42807593 43227531 44007475 44087387 43867315 43417281
            42667261 42097280 41747337 41657422 41767556 42047606
            42807593