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Mesoscale Discussion 1800
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022

Areas affected...eastern north Dakota and far northwestern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 191701Z - 191830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated storms capable of isolated hail may continue for
another couple of hours. Gradual weakening is expected early this
afternoon and a watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...As of 1700 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a
cluster of elevated thunderstorms ongoing across portions of eastern
ND. Likely driven by subtle warm air advection ahead of a southern
Canadian shortwave trough, lift should begin to decrease as storms
shift farther east with time. Supported by weak buoyancy aloft
(MUCAPE of 500-750 J/kg) a few elevated supercell structures may
persist for a couple more hours given 45-50 kt of effective shear.
Strong upper-level storm relative winds, sufficient buoyancy/lapse
rates, and the supercell mode suggests isolated severe hail may
acco*pany the stronger storms as they approach the I-29 corridor.
However, buoyancy beco*es increasingly limited with eastern extant
as storms outrun the stronger warm advection and elevated
destabilization. This is matched by the latest hi-res guidance which
shows a gradual weakening of storms near the ND/MN border. Thus,
with the limited buoyancy and severe coverage, a weather watch is
not expected.

..Lyons/Grams.. 09/19/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   47889902 48179802 48309709 48259684 48179658 47989631
            47669615 47579611 47329608 47189618 47089674 47109779
            47299883 47439909 47549928 47889902