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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2022

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with wind damage and hail will be possible
on Wednesday across parts of the lower Great Lakes region.

...Lower Great Lakes/Central and Northern Appalachians...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the Great Lakes region
on Wednesday, as a 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet moves through the
based of the trough. At the surface, a fast-moving cold front will
advance southeastward into the central Great Lakes. Low-level
convergence will increase along the front during the day. This
co*bined with surface heating and strong large-scale ascent
associated with the upper-level trough, will result in thunderstorm
development during the afternoon. These storms are forecast to move
eastward into the vicinity of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie during the
late afternoon and early evening. Large-scale ascent should be
focused along a well-defined band of vorticity, making squall line
development likely.

Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in mid to
upper 60s F, which will contribute to the development of moderate
instability. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the
1500 to 2500 J/kg range by mid afternoon, along an axis from
northeast Ohio into far western New York. In addition, forecast
soundings along the instability axis by 00Z/Thursday have 0-6 km
shear near 50 knots. Winds are forecast to be veered to the
south-southwest ahead of the front but some directional shear should
be present in the lowest 3 km. This environment should be favorable
for wind damage along the leading edge of a squall line. The
wind-damage threat should be greatest from far northern Ohio into
far northwest Pennsylvania and western New York, although a marginal
wind-damage threat could exist further east into central
Pennsylvania and eastern New York later in the evening. Lapse rates
in the mid-levels should also be steep enough for hail with the
stronger updrafts.

..Broyles.. 09/19/2022