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Mesoscale Discussion 1798
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

Areas affected...the Mississippi River Valley into Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 537...

Valid 190428Z - 190630Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 537
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat of hail and locally severe gusts continues, and
may eventually affect areas south of WW 537. While local watch
extensions in space may need to be considered later tonight,
additional watches are not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...Several clusters of storms persist across the region,
with the strongest activity over western IL near the MS River. Other
sporadic cores have developed farther northwest into southeast IA,
with indications of severe hail.

Given the cooling boundary layer, effective parcels are somewhat
elevated, with 925-850 mb winds out of the west. While still
unstable, this air mass may dry a bit aloft as seen in water vapor 
trends. In the near term, existing clusters of storms may pose a
hail or wind threat, aided by moderate northwest flow aloft.
However, the co*bination of drying midlevels as well as cooling low
levels may result in increasing CIN, and gradually decreasing storm
intensity.

..Jewell.. 09/19/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   40529243 40689242 40729150 41079006 41188897 40598851
            39548855 38988902 38608984 38749047 39589141 40529243