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Mesoscale Discussion 1794
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

Areas affected...portions of northeast Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 534...

Valid 180054Z - 180230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 534
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 534. A couple of instances of severe hail may acco*pany the
stronger, longer-lived storms over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...While a few of the storms have obtained supercell
characteristics per KMVX and MRMS mosaic radar imagery, the storms
have struggled to beco*e particularly robust to this point. While
1000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 40 kts of effective bulk shear (driven by
elongated, straight hodographs) still resides ahead of the storms,
nocturnal cooling should contribute to gradual weakening of the
storms later this evening. Over the next few hours though, a couple
bouts of severe hail may acco*pany the stronger updrafts that manage
to beco*e organized given the presence of modest buoyancy and a
shear profile supportive of some hail production.

..Squitieri.. 09/18/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...

LAT...LON   46409475 46919458 47349444 47889385 47989321 47929240
            47439199 46849208 46429257 46289308 46219397 46409475