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Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE THUNDER LINE IN GULF COAST AREA

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms with hail and strong wind gusts are
possible on Saturday from parts of the central Plains into the Upper
Midwest.

...Central Plains/Upper Midwest...
Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Saturday from the
Intermountain West to the Great Lakes, as a shortwave trough moves
northeastward across the north-central United States. In response to
the shortwave trough, a 30 to 40 knot low-level jet will move 
northeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. Thunderstorm development
will be possible in the morning near the nose of the jet from
eastern Nebraska into Iowa. This convection should move
northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley by midday, allowing
for moderate destabilization ahead of a cold front further to the
south. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE could peak in the 2000 to
3000 J/kg range by mid to late afternoon from eastern Kansas
northeastward into Iowa. In response, surface-based thunderstorms
appear likely to develop to the west of the low-level jet within the
instability corridor. This convection may remain intact through much
of the evening, moving slowly east-northeastward into the mid to
upper Mississippi Valley.

Concerning the shear environment, the models suggest that moderate
deep-layer shear will be possible along parts of the instability
axis. The most likely location for moderate deep-layer shear will be
in Iowa near and south of a mid-level speed max, evident in the NAM
and GFS forecasts. NAM forecast soundings late Saturday afternoon in
western and central Iowa have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 kt range.
Substantial directional shear is also present, suggesting
supercell-like structures will be possible, sufficient for an
isolated severe threat. Hail and a few strong wind gusts would
acco*pany the stronger cells. However, the forecast soundings in the
same area suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates will only be in the
6.5 to 7.0 C/km range. The weakness in lapse rates should be
problematic for greater severe threat coverage.

..Broyles.. 09/16/2022