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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 AM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance continues to struggle with consistency, with
the latest iteration suggesting the development of a substantial
upper ridge across the central CONUS on D5/Sunday and D6/Monday. As
this ridge develops, a shortwave trough is expected to drop along
the West Coast while deepening into a closed circulation.
Eventually, this low then ejects northeastward across the Great
Basin and central Rockies, although the timing of this advance
varies greatly within the most recent guidance. 

Some severe does appear possible, either over the north-central
CONUS on the northern periphery the strong upper ridge or with the
West Coast upper low as it ejects eastward. However, given the model
variability, forecast confidence in any particular scenario is low.