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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NE
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN SD...

...SUMMARY...
Storms capable of isolated severe gusts will be possible this
afternoon and evening from western Nebraska into parts of South
Dakota.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid/upper-level trough will persist over the western CONUS
today. Multiple embedded vorticity maxima within the longwave trough
are forecast to emerge over the Great Plains through the period, as
a downstream upper ridge shifts slowly eastward toward the
lower/mid-MS Valley. A surface cyclone is forecast to move slowly
eastward from Montana into the Dakotas, with a lee trough extending
southward into the central/southern High Plains, and a warm front
extending eastward toward the eastern Dakotas and central/northern
MN. 

...Parts of the central/northern Plains...
Rather strong diurnal heating is expected across parts of the
central/northern Plains, along/east of the lee trough and
along/south of the warm front. Modest moisture return will support
the development of weak to moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE increasing
into the 500-1500 J/kg range by late afternoon. Widely scattered
thunderstorms will be possible along the lee trough, and also
farther east from north-central NE into central/eastern SD, along
the leading edge of deeper returning moisture. While deep-layer
shear will likely remain relatively weak, inverted-v profiles and
increasing low-level flow will support a threat of isolated
severe/damaging gusts, even if convection remains relatively
disorganized. 

Elevated convection may expand in coverage later tonight across
parts of ND/MN. Steep midlevel lapse rates could support an isolated
hail threat with this activity, but confidence in this scenario is
too low to include late-period hail probabilities at this time. 

...Southern High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected near/east of the lee
trough into the southern High Plains. Isolated strong gusts will be
possible with these storms, but buoyancy and low-level flow are
expected to be somewhat weaker co*pared to areas farther north, and
the threat of severe gusts appears too low to extend wind
probabilities into the region at this time.

..Dean/Weinman.. 09/14/2022