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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE ACROSS CENTRAL KS INTO EASTERN NE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are
possible from the Texas Panhandle across central Kansas and into
eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Great Plains...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the central High Plains
Thursday morning into the Mid MO Valley by early Friday morning.
During the same time frame, a surface low associated with this
shortwave should move from the central Dakotas eastward into the
MN/ND/SD border intersection vicinity throughout the day. An
attendant trough will extend southwestward from this low to another
weak surface low over the central High Plains on Thursday morning.
Northern portion of this surface trough will make modest eastward
progress together with the parent surface low, while the southern
portion remains largely stationary in tandem with the central High
Plains low.

Low-level moisture return is anticipated ahead of this surface
trough, with dewpoints likely in the mid/upper 50s Thursday
afternoon. Strong heating is anticipated throughout the boundary
layer, with temperatures likely in the upper 80s to low 90s from the
TX Panhandle into eastern NE. This heating and associated mixing
amid the modestly moist low-levels will help destabilize the air
mass, supporting thunderstorm development along the trough during
the late afternoon/early evening. 

Enhanced southerly low-level flow is expected amid the tight surface
pressure gradient across the Plains, but mid to upper level flow
attendant to the shortwave will be modest (i.e. around 25 to 30 kt
at 500 mb). The resulting wind profile will a yield modest
deep-layer vertical shear, likely favoring a disorganized,
outflow-dominant storm mode. Given the high cloud bases and deeply
mixed boundary layer, strong gusts could result from the most robust
storms. Isolated hail is also possible, but coverage is currently
expected to be less than 5%. Tornado potential is very low.

...Elsewhere..
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also anticipated across the
FL Peninsula, as a moist low-level airmass interacts with a weak
front across region. Weak vertical shear will keep storms
sub-severe.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also expected across the
northern Rockies, ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving
through the northern Great Basin. Limited buoyancy and shear should
preclude severe storms.

..Mosier.. 09/14/2022