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Mesoscale Discussion 1782
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0433 PM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022

Areas affected...Parts of southern VT...southern NH...northern
CT...and MA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 132133Z - 132330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail will be
possible across parts of the Northeast during the next few hours. A
watch is being considered.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KENX shows a N/S-oriented band
of convection with embedded/transient rotating updrafts and small
bowing structures tracking east-northeastward across parts of the
Northeast. Ahead of this activity, filtered diurnal heating has
allowed temperatures to warm into the middle 70s amid upper
60s/lower 70s boundary-layer dewpoints. This is yielding
surface-based inflow for the convective band, and 40-45 kt
deep-layer shear (per regional VWP data) is supporting some
convective organization. With the deep-layer shear oriented
parallel/oblique to the leading-edge gust front, a continued linear
mode and isolated wind damage will be the main concern. This will
especially be the case with any embedded bowing structures that
beco*e oriented NNW-SSE. In addition, backed surface winds and
boosted low-level SRH over northern MA into southern VT/NH could
allow for transient rotating updrafts and perhaps marginal hail or a
brief/weak tornado. It is still unclear if the severe threat
warrants a watch, but it is being considered.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 09/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON   41867347 42517324 43337249 43567182 43677116 43537075
            42557056 42117072 41907105 41797147 41717196 41607274
            41617317 41867347