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Mesoscale Discussion 1781
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022

Areas affected...Eastern NY...Western New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 131558Z - 131800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon over
eastern New York and western New England.  The strongest cells may
produce isolated damaging wind gusts and hail.  Trends will be
monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving
across eastern NY/PA.  Dewpoints ahead of the front remain in the
upper 60s and lower 70s within the Hudson Valley and areas eastward.
 Considerable cloud cover in this region has limited daytime heating
thus far, but temperatures are slowly warming through the 70s,
yielding MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg.  Isolated thunderstorms
have begun to form in this environment, but thus far have shown
limited intensity.  Forecast soundings show modest low-level flow
and rather weak lapse rates.  This suggests that updraft strength
will remain generally limited.  However, some potential exists for
intensification by mid-afternoon as continued moist influx and
daytime heating occurs.  Locally damaging winds and hail are the
main threats with the strongest cells.  Convective trends will be
monitored for the possibility of watch issuance later this
afternoon.

..Hart.. 09/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON   44827335 44747216 43687144 42197154 41617281 41627379
            42307475 43597472 44437427 44827335