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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected across the northern Rockies, northern and
central Plains, and Florida Peninsula on Thursday.
Severe-thunderstorm potential is low.

...Northern/Central Plains...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the central High Plains
Thursday morning into the Mid MO Valley by early Friday morning. A
surface low associated with this shortwave should begin the period
over the central Dakotas before shifting eastward into the MN/ND/SD
border intersection vicinity throughout the day. An attendant trough
will extend southwestward from this low to another weak surface low
over the central High Plains on Thursday morning. Northern portion
of this surface trough will make modest eastward progress together
with the parent surface low, while the southern portion remains
largely stationary in tandem with the central High Plains low.
 
Low-level moisture return is anticipated ahead of this surface
trough, with dewpoints likely in the mid/upper 50s Thursday
afternoon. Strong boundary-layer mixing within this modestly moist
airmass will support limited buoyancy during the late
afternoon/early evening. Consequently, isolated thunderstorm
development is possible, primarily from western KS into central NE.
However, there is some uncertainty regarding overall moisture
return, which then raises questions about buoyancy. Additionally,
vertical shear will be weak, limiting the severe potential of any
storms that do develop. As such, no probabilities will be added with
this outlook over the Plains.

...Elsewhere..
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also anticipated across the
FL Peninsula, as a moist low-level airmass interacts with a weak
front across region. Weak vertical shear will keep storms
sub-severe.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also expected across the
northern Rockies, ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving
through the northern Great Basin. Limited buoyancy and shear should
preclude severe storms.

..Mosier.. 09/13/2022