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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible across the Florida
Peninsula as well as over the Great Basin and Rockies on Wednesday.
A few thunderstorms are also possible across the northern Plains
Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning. Severe-thunderstorm
potential is low.

...Great Basin into the northern Plains...
Broad upper troughing is forecast to move gradually eastward across
the western CONUS towards the Plains, with several embedded
shortwave troughs progressing eastward as well. Evolution of this
upper trough will promote an eastward shift of the upper ridging
initially over the Plains, with this expectation that the ridging
will extend over the MS Valley by early Thursday morning. Increased
mid-level moisture will acco*pany this upper trough, contributing to
showers and thunderstorms from the Great Basin eastward to the
Rockies. Limited buoyancy and vertical shear will keep the severe
potential low with any of these storms.

Surface lee troughing will likely deepen across the High Plains as
the upper trough approaches, with surface cyclogenesis expected over
western SD. The resulting low is then forecast to gradually move
eastward across the central Dakotas throughout the evening and
overnight. Low-level convergence is expected along a trough
extending southward from the low into the central High Plains.
Limited moisture return and deep boundary-layer mixing should limit
thunderstorm prospects along the trough, with only a storm or two
currently anticipated. 

Additional elevated thunderstorms are expected Wednesday night
across the Dakotas, amid the warm-air advection fostered by a strong
low-level jet. Both buoyancy and cloud-layer vertical shear will be
modest, with most of the strong flow confided below the LCL. These
conditions should limit the coverage of any strong to severe storms,
although a robust updraft or two is possible. Currently, the severe
coverage is expected to remain below 5%.

...FL...
Expansive surface ridging is anticipated within the post-frontal
airmass across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday, which should keep the
majority of the region free of thunderstorms. The only exception is
FL, where low-level moisture will remain in place as the front
slowly progress southward. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
anticipated across the peninsula late Wednesday morning into
Wednesday afternoon. Weak vertical shear should keep storms
sub-severe.

..Mosier.. 09/13/2022