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Mesoscale Discussion 1780
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022

Areas affected...Parts of central Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 122154Z - 130000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple strong to locally severe gusts and isolated hail
up to 1 inch will be possible into the early evening hours.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered convective development is
underway along the higher terrain across parts of central AZ. This
activity is being aided by strong diurnal heating/terrain
circulations and perhaps a subtle midlevel impulse tracking
northward across western AZ (evident in water vapor imagery).
Regional VWP data shows 25 kt midlevel southerly flow acco*panying
the impulse, which is contributing to brief updraft organization.
While the 18Z FGZ special sounding sampled modest effective shear
near 25 kt, steep low/mid-level lapse rates and some drying in the
midlevels could result in strong to locally severe downbursts with
any convective clusters that evolve. In addition, a few instances of
marginal hail up to 1 inch in diameter could occur with any
stronger/separated updrafts given sufficient deep-layer shear.
Overall, the severe risk is expected to remain marginal and
localized.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 09/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...

LAT...LON   34111051 34511168 34761293 35151300 35561278 35721222
            35731153 35351059 35001008 34540979 34140971 34020996
            34111051