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Mesoscale Discussion 1779
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022

Areas affected...Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 122146Z - 122345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage threat will continue across parts
of the Mid-Atlantic over the next couple of hours. The threat is
expected to remain too marginal for weather watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Over the last few hours, thunderstorms have increased
in coverage across much of eastern Virginia and western Maryland.
The convection is being supported by large-scale ascent associated
with a lead shortwave trough evident in water vapor imagery over the
Mid-Atlantic. RAP analysis shows a pocket of moderate instability in
the Mid-Atlantic where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1500 to 2000
J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP in southern Delaware has a
0-6 km shear near 45 knots, with speed shear primarily in the
mid-levels. This co*bined with steep lapse rates near 7.5 C/km in
the 0-3 km layer will be sufficient for isolated damaging wind
gusts. The wind-damage threat should persist for a few hours before
the convection moves into the immediate coastal areas and
instability decreases.

..Broyles/Thompson.. 09/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40267397 39677396 38577484 37697563 37557648 37717713
            38087748 38737752 39437718 40257641 40757563 40767496
            40647444 40267397