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Mesoscale Discussion 1778
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022

Areas affected...Southern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 121957Z - 122200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop across southern
Arizona over the next 1-2 hours, gradually moving north through the
late afternoon and evening. This activity may produce strong to
severe wind gusts, but a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A building cumulus field has been monitored across
southern AZ over the past 1-2 hours. Recently, an uptick in
lightning activity and cooling cloud top temperatures have been
noted with a few of the stronger updrafts, and the number of deeper
updrafts within the cumulus field has steadily increased. These
trends indicate that sustained convective initiation is likely
underway across southern AZ. With temperatures warming into the low
90s downstream across central AZ, low-level lapse rates have
increase to 8-9 C/km, as sampled by a recent 18 UTC sounding from
FGZ. Furthermore, the 18 UTC sounding exhibits SBCAPE values near
1100 J/kg, and despite marginal deep-layer shear, the thermodynamic
environment is supportive of strong to severe downburst winds. The
probability of strong/severe winds will increase across southern to
central AZ through the afternoon hours as individual cells currently
developing gradually consolidate into one or more semi-organized
clusters as they propagate to the north/northwest. Given the limited
spatial extent of the threat and marginal kinematic environment, a
watch is not expected.

..Moore/Hart.. 09/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   31731268 32641291 33301272 33891237 33901163 33531067
            32951010 32330995 31210991 31211020 31261100 31731268