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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022

Valid 121700Z - 131200Z

The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made
to the isolated dry thunderstorm highlights to reflect the latest
guidance consensus. Please see the previous forecast below for more
details.

..Squitieri.. 09/12/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022/

...Synopsis...
The northwestern periphery of an amplified large-scale ridge
centered over the western states will break down in response to an
eastward-advancing midlevel trough over the Pacific Northwest. At
the surface, low pressure will track east-northeastward from SK into
ON Canada, while a trailing cold front sweeps southward across the
northern Plains. 

...Dry Thunderstorms...
Preceding the midlevel trough over the Pacific Northwest, an
embedded shortwave impulse will track northeastward across the
northern Great Basin. As strengthening large-scale ascent
acco*panying this feature overspreads a plume of midlevel moisture
emanating from the eastern Pacific, isolated to widely scattered
high-based thunderstorms should develop. Deep boundary-layer mixing
beneath the midlevel moisture will result in inverted-V
thermodynamic profiles -- supporting dry thunderstorms initially.
Given receptive fuels over the northern Great Basin, isolated
lightning-induced ignitions will be possible -- especially during
the early stages of storm development and away from any heavier
precipitation cores. Strong/erratic outflow winds could also develop
with the more robust storms. 

...Northern Plains...
Behind the southward-advancing cold front over the northern Plains,
breezy northerly surface winds near 15 mph will be possible. Those,
coupled with 15-20 percent RH, will favor elevated fire-weather
conditions over eastern MT, western ND, and far northwestern SD
during the afternoon/early evening hours.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...