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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AND OVER ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of
the Mid-Atlantic into North Carolina on Monday, with occasional
damaging winds the main threat. A few severe thunderstorms also
appear possible across portions of Arizona.

...Middle Atlantic to NC...

Notable upper low over northern IL will deepen as it tracks across
the northern OH Valley during the first half of the period. Latest
model guidance suggests high-level difluent flow and mid-level
height falls will spread across the OH Valley during the day which
should encourage scattered convection along/ahead of a cold front
that should arc from western NY-central PA-western VA/NC during the
afternoon. While low-level flow/convergence is not forecast to be
that significant along the front, surface-6km bulk shear will likely
support organized updrafts and possible supercells within a very
moist and weak lapse-rate environment. Forecast soundings across the
Delmarva exhibit the greatest risk for potential supercells. Even
so, gusty winds, and perhaps some hail, appear to be the main risks
with the most robust storms.

...AZ...

Upper ridge is forecast to shift into the southern/central Rockies
by the end of the period. This will allow an upper trough off the
northern Baja Peninsula to advance across the northern Gulf of CA
toward AZ, although gradual weakening is expected as this feature
ejects northeast. While mid-level flow is not forecast to be
particularly strong, latest model guidance suggest 500mb winds may
increase to near 20-25kt by peak heating. Forecast soundings exhibit
seasonally steep surface-3km lapse rates, and this is expected to
aid gusty winds where robust updrafts and clustering evolve.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 09/12/2022