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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across New England on
Tuesday.

...Northeast/New England...
A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be centered over southern
Lower MI/southwestern Ontario early Tuesday morning, before
progressing northeastward over the Lower Great Lakes throughout the
day. Cold front associated with this system will be east of the
mid/upper cyclone, beginning the period arcing from a low/triple
point over central Ontario into central NY and then southward
through eastern PA. A weak frontal low is also expected over the
Hudson Valley early Tuesday, with a warm front extending eastward
across MA.

This cold front will progress eastward throughout the day, pushing
through much of southern New England by 00Z Wednesday. As the cold
front progresses eastward, the frontal low will shift northeastward
in tandem, with this evolution helping to bring upper 60/low 70s
dewpoints into southern New England. Mid 60s dewpoints are possible
into much of VT and NH. 

Recent guidance has trended more progressive with the upper low,
with the moderate mid-level flow surrounding the low also spreading
farther east. Consequently, modest buoyancy will be colocated with
strengthening mid-level flow and increasing forcing for ascent. The
resulting environment will support thunderstorm development, with a
few strong to severe storms possible. Primary storm mode is expected
to be multicellular, but some clusters/bowing line segments are
possible. A supercell or two could also develop, particularly across
CT/RI/MA vicinity where southerly low-level winds could overlap 70s
dewpoints. Damaging wind gusts are the primary severe threat, but a
tornado or two is also possible, particularly if supercell
development is realized.

...Southwest/Great Basin/Intermountain West...
The remnants of Tropical Storm Kay are expected to progress across
the Great Basin towards the northern/central Rockies as a shortwave
trough on Tuesday. Lift and moisture attendant to this system will
result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms, with the highest
storm coverage anticipated over northern AZ and northwest NM. Modest
buoyancy and vertical shear will limit the severe potential.
Additionally, a northeasterly storm motion across AZ will take the
storms that do develop away from the steep low-level lapse rates of
the lower deserts.

..Mosier.. 09/12/2022