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Mesoscale Discussion 1776
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022

Areas affected...Parts of south-central Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 112356Z - 120130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of marginal hail and strong to locally
severe gusts will be possible into the early evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KEMX depicts isolated
discrete cells evolving south of Tuscon AZ, where upper 50s
dewpoints beneath modest midlevel lapse rates are contributing to
moderate surface-based instability. This activity is developing
along the eastern periphery of 25-30 kt southerly midlevel flow (per
regional VWP), which is resulting in 20-30 kt effective shear.
RAP/NAM forecast hodographs depict modest clockwise-turning in the
low/mid-levels, which co*bined with weak large-scale ascent over the
area could favor discrete/semi-discrete convection with transient
updraft rotation. The primary concern with this activity will be a
couple instances of sporadic marginal hail and perhaps strong to
locally severe downdraft winds aided by a deeply mixed boundary
layer. Any severe threat should remain localized and marginal.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 09/11/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

LAT...LON   31231109 31731255 31921311 32741322 33121301 33171254
            33061177 32811104 32331044 32001025 31291038 31231109