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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

The primary change to this outlook was to add Elevated highlights to
portions of eastern Montana. Guidance consensus has trended more
favorably in depicting widespread 15 mph sustained northwesterly
surface winds overlapping 15-25 percent RH for at least a few hours
tomorrow afternoon. While the overall surface wind fields appear
marginal across the northern High Plains, appreciable rainfall
accumulations have been lacking over the past few weeks and this
should remain the case through tomorrow. As such, fuels should be at
least marginally receptive to wildfire spread on a widespread basis,
necessitating Elevated highlights. Otherwise, the previous forecast
(see below) remains on track regarding dry lightning potential
across the northern Great Basin tomorrow.

..Squitieri.. 09/11/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022/

...Synopsis...
Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered over
the western states, a midlevel trough will move eastward across the
Pacific Northwest. Preceding the trough, a series of embedded
cyclonic impulses will overspread a plume of midlevel moisture
extending northward across the Great Basin. Farther east, surface
low pressure will lift east-northeastward from SK into ON Canada,
while a trailing cold front sweeps southward across the northern
Plains.

...Dry Thunderstorms...
Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the midlevel trough, coupled
with sufficient midlevel moisture/instability, will support isolated
high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin during the
afternoon and early evening hours. As these storms overspread a
diurnally deepening boundary layer, precipitation will initially be
limited owing to sub-cloud evaporative cooling and modest
southwesterly storm motions. Given receptive fuels across the
region, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible --
especially in the early stages of storm development and away from
any precipitation cores.

...Northern High Plains...
Breezy northerly surface winds near 15 mph will be possible behind
the southward-advancing cold front, where 15-20 percent RH is
expected. The breezy surface winds and low RH could favor elevated
fire-weather conditions (particularly over eastern MT and far
western ND), though these conditions look too marginal and brief for
Elevated highlights at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...