Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 1775
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022

Areas affected...Southern Nevada

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 101953Z - 102200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Strengthening convection may support strong to severe
outflow winds across southern Nevada this afternoon. However, this
threat will remain too limited for a watch.

DISCUSSION...c*nvection has been slowly maturing over south-central
NV over the past 1-2 hours. Continued diurnal warming, co*bined with
unseasonably high moisture for southern NV, is bolstering buoyancy
with MLCAPE values increasing to over 1000 J/kg per latest RAP
mesoanalysis estimates. This is allowing for steady intensification
of a small convective cluster across Nye county, with a notable
increase in lightning activity and cooling cloud-top temperatures
noted over the past 30 minutes. Although deep-layer shear is
somewhat modest (around 20-25 knots of effective bulk shear),
low-level lapse rates have steadily increased as surface
temperatures warm into the low 80s. This thermodynamic environment
is supportive of a few strong/severe wind gusts as the cluster over
Nye county (as well as a few more isolated nearby cells) propagates
to the west/northwest. 

Sporadic strong winds are also possible with a loosely organized
cluster of thunderstorms moving into far southeast NV out of
northwest AZ. However, the downstream environment ahead of this
cluster is thermodynamically more marginal as low-level lapse rates
have struggled to recover after early-morning convection.
Consequently, the probability for severe winds with this cluster is
lower. Regardless, the potential for widespread severe winds with
both areas remains spatially limited and negates the need for a
watch.

..Moore/Hart.. 09/10/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...VEF...LKN...REV...

LAT...LON   36861635 36881709 37391848 38221912 38711876 39081767
            38611641 37351568 36861635