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Mesoscale Discussion 1774
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022

Areas affected...c*astal Carolinas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 101616Z - 101815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A brief/weak tornado or two is possible through the
afternoon hours as thunderstorms continue to develop off the
Carolina coast and move onshore. A watch is not expected given the
limited nature of the threat.

DISCUSSION...A pair of weak circulations have been tracked from the
KLTX radar in far southeast NC over the past 20-30 minutes. These
circulations are associated with largely unorganized marine
convection that has begun to move onshore. However, the easterly
low-level onshore flow under modest southerly winds between 2-3 km
is providing sufficient low-level SRH to support weak storm rotation
with the stronger updrafts. This kinematic environment is sampled
well by the KTLX VWP, and likely extends northward along the NC
coast. Latest visible satellite trends show additional cumulus
development offshore, slowly moving towards the coast. Buoyancy will
likely continue to increase through the day amid daytime heating and
will support additional T-storm chances through the afternoon.
Forecast soundings hint that the best kinematic environment will
persist now through around 21 UTC, but the overall limited wind
magnitudes will support a rather low-end waterspout/tornado threat
along the coast.

..Moore/Hart.. 09/10/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...

LAT...LON   33517946 34137899 34817758 35147664 34867609 34507623
            34147696 33717789 33477851 33347913 33517946