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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
FLORIDA...GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe convective gusts, or a brief tornado,
may occur over parts of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.

...Synopsis...
The dominant mid/upper-level features for this forecast will be two
troughs:
1.  A northern-stream synoptic trough -- initially located from
southern MB across the northern Plains to north-central/northwestern
CO.  This trough is forecast to amplify and beco*e somewhat less
positively tilted through the period, as a shortwave perturbation
now located farther northwest over MT digs rapidly southeastward
into the broader trough's base.  By 00Z, the main trough should
extend from the MN Northwest Angle area across northeastern NE to
central CO.  By 12Z tomorrow, the synoptic trough should be located
near a line from INL-MKC-TUL-CSM.
2.  A broad, weak, initially cut-off cyclone, now evident in
moisture-channel imagery over the Mississippi Delta region and
adjoining parts of LA/MS/AR.  As heights fall ahead of the
strengthening northern-stream trough, the cyclone will degrade
rapidly to an open-wave trough, moving little through 00Z. 
Overnight, however, this feature will deamplify further, with its
northern portion accelerating eastward.  By 12Z, the result should
be a positively tilted shortwave trough from the Tennessee Valley
region to the LA Gulf Coast.

East and southeast of that feature, a long fetch of convectively
induced/augmented vorticity maxima are apparent from the western
Carolinas and GA south-southwestward across the eastern Gulf, and
into the tropics over Belize and Guatemala.  These perturbations
will continue to move north-northeastward, while their co*mon axis
shifts eastward over more of northwestern FL and the Carolinas in
response to the approaching interaction of the two main troughs.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front related to the
northern-stream trough, from eastern Upper MI across northwestern
IL, northwestern OK, to southeastern/central NM.  As this front
proceeds eastward/southeastward, a wave low will form over MO and
reach central IL by the end of the period.  By then, the front
should extend from there northeastward across Lake Huron and
southwestward over central TX.  Thunderstorms should develop mainly
behind this front in an elevated plume of ascent, with isolated
small hail possible, but buoyancy and moisture too limited for
organized severe.  A wavy/quasistationary front was drawn near ILM
across central parts of SC/GA/AL/MS.  This boundary should undergo
net northward drift and beco*e somewhat more diffuse through the
period, except near the SC/NC coastline, where marine thermal
influences will augment baroclinicity.

...Southeast...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to move
northeastward across the outlook area through this evening, with
damaging to marginally severe gusts possible, and a conditional
potential for a brief tornado.

A band of strong convection may cross the western/central parts of
the outlook area (FL/GA) through this afternoon into early evening,
encountering a diurnally destabilized inland airmass with 70s F
surface dewpoints and MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg.  This activity
likely will be an extension or evolution of convection now well west
of the coast of southwestern FL.  The fetch of vorticity maxima
aloft will both support that primary convective plume through
passing shots of DCVA/ascent, and correspond closely to a corridor
of maximized 500-850-mb flow, as it shifts slowly eastward through
the period.

In a very moist low/middle-tropospheric profile, momentum transfer
from the stronger flow aloft may co*bine with the stronger water-
loaded downdrafts and modest cold-pool aggregation to enable
localized, brief gusts near severe levels.  As mesoscale height-
gradient/speed enhancements pass any given location, effective-shear
magnitudes may increase to the 30-40-kt range, contributing to
mainly multicellular storm organization.  Transient supercell
structures may be noted, especially where local boundary
interactions occur.  Farther northeast near the coastal Carolinas,
low-level shear will be enhanced near the front, but weak mid/upper
flow will limit overall convective organization to, at best,
marginal severity.

..Edwards/Smith.. 09/10/2022