Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN
NEBRASKA TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Episodic significant severe weather is possible across portions of
the central to southern High Plains beginning late this afternoon
and continuing into tonight. Very large hail and damaging
straight-line winds, in addition to at least a few tornadoes are
anticipated.

...Southern to central High Plains...
As robust cyclogenesis occurs from the Denver metro area to the NE
Panhandle this afternoon into early evening, mid-level height falls
will overspread an arcing dryline from central NE to the TX South
Plains. Initially high-based convective development is most likely
across the western Panhandles into western KS. With a plume of mid
50s to low 60s surface dew points expected to be maintained ahead of
the dryline, this convection should deepen into scattered discrete
supercells. Large hail, some of which may be significant, should be
the primary initial hazard. Despite strong gradient surface winds,
strengthening of the low-level jet will yield increasingly enlarged
clockwise-curved hodographs during the early evening. This would
typically favor tornadoes as well, however, guidance differs
substantially with the degree of vertical boundary-layer mixing east
of the dryline. As such, confidence is low for a greater tornado
threat and hr**-based guidance indicates a rather pronounced
convective wind signal despite the primary discrete mode. Guidance
is more consistent in depicting cold low-level theta-e advection
from the south during the evening. This should result in a general
weakening convective trend towards late evening.

A later round of separate convective development is likely towards
late evening as the Pacific cold front impinges on the western
extent of the buoyancy plume near the NE/CO/KS border area. This
should result in a north/south-oriented convective line quickly
spreading into western portions of NE/KS. Very strong wind profiles
should promote a threat for severe wind and some hail, although
duration and spatial extent overnight will probably be limited by
the pervasive cold low-level theta-e advection in the warm sector,
reducing available CAPE with time. 

...Western SD and northwest NE...
A rather tight baroclinic zone will lie to the north of the
slow-moving warm front/quasi-stationary frontal zone extending from
the deepening central High Plains cyclone. A narrow bent-back plume
of 50s surface dew points should be maintained beneath an initially
stout elevated mixed layer. Guidance differs with where exactly this
corridor will setup, but it is plausible that a surface-based storm
may ride along the boundary within an SRH-enriched environment near
the SD/NE border area. Additional storms, likely elevated, are
possible farther west-northwest. Hodographs will be highly
elongated, yielding the potential for a longer-lived supercell or
two, with the main threat being significant large hail.

...Upper Midwest...
Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible mainly this
morning, and separately farther north tonight, within a low-level
warm theta-e advection regime. This potential will be supported by
steepening mid-level lapse rates attendant to an expanding Great
Plains elevated mixed-layer and adequate shear within the
cloud-bearing layer.

..Grams/Jewell.. 04/22/2022