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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio Valley and
much of the Mid-Atlantic region on Monday. Severe thunderstorm
potential is low.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low is forecast to be centered over IL early Monday
morning, with moderate mid-level flow arcing through its southern
periphery from IA to the MO/IL/KY border vicinity and into the
middle OH Valley. This low is expected to progress eastward across
the OH Valley throughout the period, likely ending the period
centered over Lake Erie. 

Primary surface low associated with this system will likely be over
northeastern IL early Monday. This low is expected to remain
stationary while beco*e increasingly occluded throughout the day
while its attendant cold front continues progressing eastward. 
Thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this cold front as it
interacts with the moist air mass over the middle/upper OH Valley
and Mid-Atlantic. Widespread cloud cover will temper heating and
mitigate buoyancy across much of this region. Mid-level flow will be
modest, but the stronger mid-level flow will remain west of the
surface front. The environmental conditions could still support a
few stronger storms, particularly if more diurnal heating is
realized. However, uncertainty regarding coverage precludes
introducing any severe probabilities with this outlook.  
  
Farther west, the remnants of Tropical Storm Kay will continue to
slowly move across southern CA, with associated moisture supporting 
scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Southwest. Highest
storm coverage is currently expected over AZ.

..Mosier.. 09/10/2022