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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A weak upper trough will migrate across the central and eastern U.S.
Days 4-5/Mon-Tue. A surface cold front will shift south across Texas
and across the southern/eastern states during this time. Some
marginal severe threat could develop across parts of southern TX on
Day 4/Mon, but potential appears too low for 15% severe
probabilities at this time. Medium range guidance is consistent in
the cold front not developing too far south into the Gulf, allowing
for a higher-quality moisture reservoir to remain in place just
offshore. 

Meanwhile, an upper ridge will develop over the Plains on Day 5/Tue
and persist through at least Day 7/Thu, when a large-scale upper
trough will move inland across the western U.S. Lee troughing along
the High Plains mid to late week will allow southerly low-level flow
to begin northward moisture transport across the Plains to the east
of a dryline. Some conditional severe potential could develop over
KS/OK/TX along the dryline by Day 7/Thu, but timing of deeper
boundary-layer moisture, weak forcing and likely capping concerns
will preclude severe probabilities at this time. Deterministic and
ensemble guidance suggest severe potential also could develop across
parts of the southern/central Plains on Day 8/Fri as the western
trough generally begins to pivot eastward, resulting in potentially
stronger lee cyclogenesis across the High Plains. Details and timing
vary among the array of available guidance and confidence is too low
to introduce probabilities at this time, though trends will be
monitored over the co*ing days and probabilities may beco*e
necessary for the Thursday/Friday time frame.