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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
MINNESOTA...FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN...IOWA...FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday through Saturday night in
a corridor from parts of the Upper Midwest into the southern Great
Plains.  This may include a risk for tornadoes, strong wind gusts
and hail.

...Synopsis...

A co*pact upper low will deepen as it shifts east/northeast from the
northern High Plains toward the Upper Midwest on Saturday. The
near-neutral tilt to the acco*panied shortwave trough will result in
fairly meridional from about 700 mb upward from the Missouri Valley
to the Upper MS Valley. As the low ejects northeast, the southern
portions of the larger-scale upper trough across the west will shift
eastward more slowly. The bifurcated structure of this system will
result in stronger ascent remaining across northern portions of the
outlook area from the Missouri Valley north/northeastward.
Nevertheless, strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread
the southern/central Plains and at least isolated organized
convection is expected from OK north/northeast into Minnesota. 

At the surface, an intense low is forecast to develop northeast from
western/central SD toward northwest MN. By early afternoon, a cold
front is forecast to overtake northern portions of a dryline, and
extend from the low southward into eastern NE then southwest across
northern KS into eastern CO. The remainder of the dryline will
extend from eastern KS into west-central OK and then southwest
toward the TX Big Bend vicinity. With time into the
evening/overnight hours the cold front will overtake the dryline in
eastern KS/OK. Ahead of these features, surface dewpoints will range
from around 58-64 F beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. Cloud cover
and areas of morning showers/thunderstorms, in conjunction with
somewhat muted midlevel lapse rates will limit stronger
destabilization, especially across northern portions of the outlook
area.

...Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest...

Strong ascent will overspread the region by late morning/early
afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in
the vicinity of the surface low/triple point from the far eastern
Dakotas into MN by midday, and eventually further south along the
eastward-advancing cold front into IA through the afternoon. While
strong effective shear will be in place across the region, aiding in
organized storms, instability will remain modest, around 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE. Enlarged low-level hodographs, beco*ing elongated above
3 km may initially support semi-discrete supercells capable of all
severe hazards. However, linear forcing mechanisms and fast storm
motion toward the north/northeast (resulting in storm interactions)
will likely lead to development of line segments. If discrete cells
develop, all severe hazards will be possible, but an increase in
damaging wind and mesovortex tornadoes will ensue as linear storm
mode beco*e dominant. Convection will spread east/northeast through
the evening before encountering increasing inhibition and poorer
moisture/instability with eastward extent toward the MS River.

...KS/OK Vicinity...

Uncertainty remains somewhat higher with southward extent as
stronger ascent will be focused to the north and at least weak
capping between 850-700 mb will exist. This midlevel warm layer may
suppress discrete convection through peak heating. Nevertheless,
somewhat better boundary-layer moisture and lapse rates will exist
across the region, resulting in 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 45+ kt
effective shear magnitudes. Large, favorably curved low-level
hodographs, beco*ing elongated in the midlevels will be present,
supporting rotating storms. As the cold front surges southeast and a
southwesterly low-level jet increases, any lingering inhibition
should be overco*e and isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected by evening. 

If storms can develop along the dryline during the late afternoon
before the cold surges southeast, supercells capable of all severe
hazards will be possible from parts of southwest into north-central
OK and eastern KS. However, this threat remains conditional and
uncertain. In the absence of stronger ascent, it appears more likely
that convection will wait to develop until the cold front overtakes
the dryline during the evening. Convection should quickly beco*e
linear in this scenario with damaging gusts and mesovortex tornadoes
possible.

...Central/Southwest TX Vicinity...

A conditional threat for isolated, elevated and/or high-based
(depending on timing), supercells will exist during the
evening/overnight along the dryline. If storms develop, effective
shear magnitudes around 45 kt and vertically veering wind profiles
will support supercells amid 1000-2000 J/kg. Isolated strong gusts
and hail will be possible with any cells that develop near the
dryline.

..Leitman.. 04/22/2022