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Mesoscale Discussion 1770
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CDT Thu Sep 08 2022

Areas affected...Parts of the middle TX coast and south-central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 082158Z - 090030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of isolated strong to severe storms will persist
across parts of the middle TX coast and south-central TX into the
early evening hours. The primary concerns are locally damaging gusts
and perhaps a few instances of marginal hail. A watch is not likely.

DISCUSSION...Along and south of a stationary boundary draped across
parts of the middle TX coast and south-central TX, temperatures have
climbed into the lower 90s amid upper 60s/lower 70s boundary-layer
dewpoints. While 12z observed soundings and the latest RAP forecast
soundings depict modest midlevel lapse rates, steep low-level lapse
rates coupled with the sufficient boundary-layer moisture are
driving moderate to strong surface-based instability. 

Isolated to widely scattered storms have already initiated along the
stationary boundary and inland-advancing sea breeze, and 20-25 kt of
midlevel northerly flow atop weak southerlies (sampled by regional
VWP) could contribute to weakly organized updrafts. The weak
large-scale ascent should favor a continued cellular mode, with some
clustering possible owing to weak inhibition. The main concern with
this activity will be locally damaging downbursts aided by water
loading, though a few instances of marginal hail will also be
possible with the separated updrafts. In addition, a brief/weak
landspout cannot be ruled out with the stronger updrafts that
develop atop boundary collisions or maintain residence time along
the stationary boundary. The threat appears too marginal and
localized for a watch.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 09/08/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   27189744 27269898 27499924 27959916 28819824 29299744
            29479675 29459621 29259545 28959513 27949684 27189744