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Mesoscale Discussion 1769
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Thu Sep 08 2022

Areas affected...portions of northern and central WY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 081949Z - 082145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong gusts may acco*pany thunderstorms through
late afternoon or early evening.

DISCUSSION...Isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms have
recently increased in intensity across portions of northern WY.
Temperatures have climbed into the 80s in lower elevations, with
surface dewpoints generally in the upper 30s to low 40s. The lack of
higher-quality boundary layer moisture is limiting instability,
however steep midlevel lapse rates are aid in 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE.
north to northwesterly winds through 3 km AGL are rather light as
well, however, increasing mid and upper level flow is resulting in
effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt. This may result in
briefly organized updrafts. While the dry dry boundary-layer and
weak instability will limit storm intensity, steep low-level lapse
rates will support gusty outflow winds with this activity. A locally
strong/severe storm or two will be possible the next few hours
across parts of northern into central WY.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 09/08/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   43810964 44510945 44770918 44980863 44840802 44580711
            44450611 44310557 44090536 43630514 43180516 42480613
            42280718 42270775 42490826 43110917 43810964