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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 AM CDT Thu Sep 08 2022

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The latest medium-range guidance is not much different than prior
runs concerning convective potential late next weekend into next
week.  It still appears that mid-level flow may trend at least a bit
more zonal and progressive to the south of the Canadian/U.S. border.
However, in the wake of a mid-level closed low, initially forming
within this regime across the northern Great Plains into upper
Mississippi Valley this weekend, it appears that another mid-level
high may at least attempt to build across the southern Great
Plains/lower Mississippi Valley by the middle of next week.

With regard to the mid-level low, model depiction of its evolution
and eastward progression toward the Atlantic coast remains quite
varied.  However, most guidance continues to indicate that
associated surface cyclogenesis will remain relatively weak, with
potential for substantive strengthening of low-level wind
fields/shear and boundary instability in its warm sector rather low.
This seems likely to at least marginalize the risk for severe
storms, if not preclude.