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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CDT Wed Sep 07 2022

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Southeast on Friday,
with some posing a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a couple of brief, weak tornadoes.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that a substantive lower/mid
tropospheric cyclone may begin to redevelop eastward and
northeastward across northern Hudson Bay during this period. 
However, at mid-levels, the eastward progression of trailing
positively tilted troughing into the
northern U.S. Great Plains probably will be slower, as another
smaller-scale perturbation digs across the northern Rockies.  It
appears that an associated low-level cold intrusion to the lee of
the Rockies will advance out ahead of the cooling aloft, across the
Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region and much of the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity by 12Z Saturday.

In lower latitudes, while Kay slowly begins to turn northwestward
and westward away from northern Baja, seasonably high moisture
content may continue to advect into southern California and portions
of the lower Colorado Valley.  Otherwise, high moisture content will
generally remain confined to portions of the Southeast, with some
northward advection to the east of the lower Mississippi Valley, as
a broad low within weak lower/mid-tropospheric flow centered near
the Louisiana coast begins to elongate in the north-south direction,
in advance of the digging troughing in the westerlies.

Highest thunderstorm probabilities Friday/Friday night are expected
to remain focused within the moist air across the Southeast, with
additional scattered thunderstorm development probable near the
higher terrain of the Southwest into Four Corners.  Convection with
embedded thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the central
Great Plains into Upper Midwest, but this probably will be mostly
post-frontal.

...Southeast...
Models suggest that modest strengthening of southerly
lower/mid-tropospheric flow (on the order of 20-30 kt in the 850-500
mb layer) may occur to the east of the Gulf coast low on Friday,
across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico into portions of the eastern
Gulf and south Atlantic coast.  It appears that this will generally
coincide with a plume of high precipitable water content (2.00-2.25+
inches), within which lower 70s F+ boundary layer dew points may
contribute to modest CAPE.  Despite weak lower/mid-tropospheric
lapse rates, heavy precipitation loading and downward momentum
transfer may contribute to at least localized strong downbursts. 
Along a diffuse warm frontal zone across northern Florida into
southern Georgia, there appears some possibility that low-level
hodographs may beco*e conducive to a couple of brief, weak
tornadoes, in the presence of high boundary layer moisture content.

..Kerr.. 09/08/2022