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Mesoscale Discussion 0530
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022

Areas affected...Southeastern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 220313Z - 220545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated storms are expected to initiate this evening
across southern Nebraska and persist through the night as they move
to the northeast.  These storms may pose a threat of severe hail, so
convective trends will be monitored for the possibility of a severe
thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...The nocturnal low-level jet is increasing across
western Oklahoma and southwestern Kansas (over 60 knots at 02Z per
DDC and VNX VWPs).  As a result, moisture advection and warm air
advection are increasing over northern Kansas and southern Nebraska,
eventually leading to thunderstorm initiation.  The latest CAM
ensemble guidance suggests that the most likely location of
initiation of storms with robust updrafts will be over south-central
Nebraska between 0300-0400Z and move northeastward through the
night. Given that these storms will develop in an environment with
over 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE and over 50 knots of effective shear,
severe hail will be possible with the strongest thunderstorm cores. 
Trends in thunderstorm coverage and intensity will be monitored for
the necessity of a watch.

..Jirak/Thompson.. 04/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...to*...GID...GLD...

LAT...LON   40089978 40569948 40979865 41269812 41519758 41539705
            41329661 40959631 40569617 40269632 40049675 39809757
            39769836 39819930 40089978