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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CDT Wed Sep 07 2022

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms may yield scattered severe wind gusts, a few
of which could be significant, across portions of the interior
Northwest and northern Rockies, centered on mid-afternoon through
early evening.

...Interior Northwest/northern Rockies...
A high-impact to extreme fire weather day is anticipated this
afternoon into the evening. Please see the latest Day 1 Fire Weather
Outlook for details on all hazards. 

Upper ridge will break down over the region as a vigorous shortwave
trough over British Columbia amplifies and shifts east-southeastward
toward the Canadian Rockies. Mid-level height falls acco*panying
this wave will overspread the interior Northwest as a belt of 50-kt
500-mb westerlies beco*es centered from northeast Oregon/eastern
Washington across northern Montana into southern Saskatchewan.
Modest moisture along with record warmth will yield very deeply
mixed boundary layers, especially east of the Rockies in Montana and
across the Idaho Snake River Valley into southeast Oregon.

Dry thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon as both
the boundary layer deepens and large-scale forcing for ascent
strengthens. While buoyancy will be quite meager with MLCAPE of 300
J/kg or less, the extreme lapse rate profiles to 500 mb will support
dry downbursts mixing to the surface from high-based/low-topped
convection. Latest convection-allowing guidance are consistent in
suggesting severe wind gusts will be prevalent within this
fast-moving, skeletal activity. The eastern extent of this threat
may include amalgamating convective outflows which could maintain
severe gusts into eastern Montana despite diminishing lightning
flashes this evening.

...Southeast/south-central Texas and southwest Louisiana...
A minor mid-level impulse evident in water vapor imagery over the
Ark-La-Tex will gradually move south-southwest into south Texas by
this evening. A pocket of relatively cooler mid-level temperatures
and steeper lapse rates attendant to this impulse should support a
plume of moderate to large MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg. While
deep-layer shear will be modest and generally offset west of the
greater instability/buoyancy, isolated marginally severe hail and
strong to localized severe wind gusts will be possible as scattered
thunderstorms develop this afternoon.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 09/07/2022