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Mesoscale Discussion 0528
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0533 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022

Areas affected...Southwest KS into extreme northwest OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 212233Z - 220030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Tornado watch is being considered for portions of
southwest Kansas.

DISCUSSION...Pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies will continue
this evening such that low-level moisture should gradually advance
north-northwest across the southern/central High Plains.
Strengthening LLJ will aid this process as it focuses across western
OK/southwest KS over the next few hours. Intense surface heating has
contributed to a near-dry adiabatic lapse rate in the lowest 3km
across the TX Panhandle into northwest OK and extreme southwest KS.
As a result, boundary-layer cu are now developing along the eastern
edge of this steep lapse-rate plume, extending into southwest KS
(DDC region) where low-level convergence is focused. Satellite
imagery suggests agitated cu field over eastern portions of DDC CWA
may be close to producing showers. Current trends suggest
thunderstorms may evolve over this region, and given the
shear/moisture supercells are expected. Will continue to monitor
this region for a tornado watch.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 04/21/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   36919966 37450025 37950078 38330055 38229907 37549840
            36969854 36919966