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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CDT Tue Sep 06 2022

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great Lakes
vicinity late Thursday afternoon and evening, posing at least some
risk for severe weather.

...Synopsis...
Models continue to indicate that the westerlies will undergo
considerable amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the
Pacific into North America through this period.  This is forecast to
include building mid-level ridging across and inland of the British
Columbia coast Thursday through Thursday night.

Downstream of this ridging, the remnants of preceding mid-level
troughing will gradually beco*e absorbed within cyclonic flow around
the southern through southeastern periphery of a significant
mid-level low, which is forecast to slowly turn southwestward to the
northwest of Hudson Bay.  It appears that this will be acco*panied
by the northeastward migration of a deepening surface cyclone from
central Manitoba into Hudson Bay, and an intrusion of cooler air
through much of the northern Great Plains and adjacent portions of
the upper Great Lakes region by daybreak Friday.

As trailing mid-level troughing digs into the northern
Rockies, and Kay continues to migrate north-northwestward off the
southern Baja coast, mid-level ridging initially centered over the
Great Basin will break down substantially further. 

Farther east, weak mid-level troughing is forecast to shift off the
northern Atlantic coast.  An associated cold front may stall and
weaken across the across the southern Mid Atlantic coast into
Tennessee Valley and Mid South vicinity, as a broad lower/mid
tropospheric cyclone beco*es better developed within weak flow
centered near the Louisiana coast. 

...Upper Great Lakes vicinity...
Although the northward return of seasonably high moisture content
will be impeded, modest moisture remains present within a corridor 
across the lower central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest.  At
least some further moistening is possible through Thursday, as a
plume of very warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air advects as
far east-northeast as the Lake Superior vicinity before beco*ing cut
off. This may support a narrow pre-frontal corridor of mixed-layer
CAPE on the order of 500-1000+ J/kg across parts of central through
northeastern Minnesota by late Thursday afternoon.  While this is
fairly modest, the steep lapse rates, coupled with sufficient
vertical shear near the southern periphery of stronger
lower/mid-tropospheric forcing for ascent, may contribute to an
environment at least marginally conducive to organized severe
convection as far south as northeastern Minnesota by early Thursday
evening.  This may initially include a supercell or two, with severe
hail and wind the primary potential hazards.

..Kerr.. 09/07/2022