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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CDT Tue Sep 06 2022

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
It is appearing increasingly probable that mid-level troughing,
forecast to dig southeast of the northern Rockies late this week,
will gradually split off the main branch of westerlies, as an
embedded mid-level low evolves across the Upper Midwest/upper
Mississippi Valley into and through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
vicinity late next weekend into early next week.  There remains
considerable spread within the various model output concerning this
evolution.  However, guidance generally indicates that the advection
of elevated mixed-layer air east of the Rockies will beco*e cut off
prior to this development, and associated surface cyclogenesis will
probably be weak.  Despite the likelihood of seasonably moist air
eventually advecting northward ahead of the system to the east of
the Mississippi River, temperature profiles with relatively weak
lapse rates and modest to weak shear probably will tend to
marginalize any associated severe weather potential.

Upstream, in the wake of Kay, seasonably moist air will continue to
return to the Southwest this weekend, and perhaps much of the Great
Basin into Rockies early next week, as mid/upper flow trends more
zonal.  This will be acco*panied by an increase in diurnal
thunderstorm activity, but the potential for the evolution of
organizing clusters posing more than a risk for localized strong
wind gusts remains unclear at this time.