Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 0526
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern KS into southwestern MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 211902Z - 212130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may pose a threat for mainly hail
over the next couple of hours. Watch issuance appears unlikely at
this time.

DISCUSSION...c*nvection has developed on the north side of a warm
front early this afternoon across eastern KS into southwestern MO.
Although low to mid-level winds are not overly strong per recent
VWPs from KSGF, there is enough veering with height to support
around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. One cell in southwestern KS has
shown supercellular characteristics, and severe hail will remain
possible in the short term given the presence of modestly steepened
mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z SGF sounding. The potential
for additional robust convective development on the northern
gradient of the warm front from central KS into southwestern MO
remains unclear this afternoon, as large-scale ascent remains
lacking over this region. Still, given that thunderstorms are
already occurring in a modest low-level warm advection regime, it
appears plausible that this activity may continue for the next
couple of hours as it develops slowly eastward. Hail should be the
primary threat, although isolated strong/gusty winds may also occur.
At this point, the severe threat is expected to remain rather
isolated, and watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

..Gleason/Hart.. 04/21/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...to*...ICT...

LAT...LON   38109685 38249755 38509763 38779738 38699636 38339480
            37889358 37439276 37219238 36919233 36639256 36679311
            37199406 37739519 37979596 38109685