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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE ACROSS WESTERN KS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of the
Great Plains into Upper Midwest Friday through Friday night.
Supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, including
tornadoes and very large hail, are possible, particularly from the
Texas Panhandle into south-central Nebraska.

...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough is forecast to be in place from the
western Great Basin through southern CA early Friday morning, while
downstream upper ridging extends from the Southeast northwestward
through the northern Plains. Expectation is for this shortwave
trough to progress quickly eastward/northeastward through the Four
Corners/Southwest, reaching the central and southern High Plains by
late Friday afternoon. 

Deepening lee surface troughing is anticipated ahead of this
shortwave across the High Plains, with eventual surface cyclogenesis
forecast over northeast CO/NE Panhandle. This low is this expected
to move northeastward across central SD while an attendant cold
front pushes eastward across the central Plains. By early Saturday,
the surface low will likely be centered over central SD with the
cold front extending southward across central NE, central KS, and
western OK. Interaction between this system (i.e. the shortwave
trough and its related surface low) and returning low-level moisture
across the Plains is currently expected to result in thunderstorms
from the Dakotas/Upper MS Valley southward into the TX Panhandle.

...Great Plains...
Both the dryline and cold front appear they will act to initiate
thunderstorms across the Plains on Friday, with the dryline activity
more likely from KS southward and cold front/surface low activity
more likely from KS northward. Regarding the dryline, guidance
continues to indicate dewpoints generally from the upper 50s to low
60s ahead of the dryline from southwest KS southward through the TX
Panhandle/TX South Plains into the Permian Basin. Warm mid-level
temperatures will also be in place, but continued moisture advection
and strong heating is expected to erode the inhibition enough to
support convective initiation. Initiation is most likely from
southwest KS into central TX Panhandle, where some influence from
the approaching wave will augment ascent along the dryline. More
isolated coverage is currently expected farther south into the
Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos. The overall environment favors
discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very
large hail and tornadoes. Eastern extent of the severe risk will be
mitigated by the lack of stronger forcing for ascent and convective
inhibition.

Farther north from northwest KS into western SD, a somewhat separate
(and later) initiation mechanism is anticipated along/near the
surface low and cold front. A more linear storm mode is expected,
with wind damage as the most likely severe hazard. Even so, strong
vertical shear could support large hail with any more discrete
and/or robust storms. A locally greater tornado risk also appears
possible across southwestern SD. In this area, backed low-level flow
near the warm front and surface low could result in a kinematic
environment more supportive of tornadogenesis. 

...Upper/Mid MS Valley...
Early morning showers and thunderstorms across IA may pose an
isolated hail risk. If these storms persist into the late morning,
some potential exists for one or more bowing segments as storms
congeal along outflow boundaries. Low-level stability would likely
prevent anything more than an isolated wind risk with these storms.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible late Friday
night into Saturday morning. A few stronger storms capable of
marginal hail and/or a damaging wind gust may occur.

..Mosier.. 04/21/2022