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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN COLORADO...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

Very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions are still forecast for
tomorrow along the Colorado Front range into central New Mexico
tomorrow afternoon, with Extremely Critical highlights remaining in
place. 30-40 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher
gusts) and 5-15 percent RH overlapping exceptionally dry fuels will
support the potential for a regional wildfire outbreak based on the
latest guidance consensus. Another point of concern will be
thunderstorm development immediately along and ahead of the dryline
tomorrow afternoon, which is expected to take place along the axis
of the driest fuels. Any lightning flashes that can occur in
proximity to the Colorado/Kansas/New Mexico/Texas border area will
do so over very receptive fuels, and with little rainfall to dampen
ignitions at the early stages of thunderstorm evolution. Isolated
dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced where confidence is
highest in lightning-induced wildfire ignitions occurring.

..Squitieri.. 04/21/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022/

...Synopsis...
***OUTBREAK OF DANGEROUS FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN COLORADO*** 

A highly amplified large-scale trough and acco*panying intense
deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern
Rockies and adjacent High Plains by peak heating. As a result,
strong cyclogenesis will occur over far northeastern Colorado, with
a sharpening dryline extending southward along the Kansas/Colorado
border and the Texas/New Mexico border. The co*bination of a tight
surface pressure gradient, hot/dry conditions behind the dryline,
and deep/powerful south-southwesterly flow will result in extremely
critical fire-weather conditions from east-central New Mexico into
eastern Colorado on Day 2/Friday.

...East-central New Mexico into eastern Colorado...
As temperatures climb into the upper 70s to middle 80s behind the
sharpening dryline, deep boundary-layer mixing into very dry air
aloft will result in widespread 5-15 percent minimum RH. At the same
time, 30-40 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with
gusts upwards of 50-60 mph) will overspread critically dry fuels
(ERCs in the 90th+ percentile). The volatile co*bination of very
strong/gusty winds, anomalously warm/dry conditions, and near-record
dry fuels will encourage extreme fire-weather conditions. 

...Remainder of the central and southern High Plains...
The eastern extent of critical fire-weather conditions will be
demarcated by the placement of the dryline, which is somewhat
unclear at this time. Regardless, strong 30+ mph sustained southerly
surface winds (with higher gusts) will extend into the western
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, western Kansas, and western Nebraska --
where fuels remain critically dry.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...