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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Mon Sep 05 2022

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms is expected to be relatively low
on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge is forecast to amplify further across the western
CONUS on Tuesday. A broad, positively tilted mid/upper-level trough
will persist over the East, as several embedded vorticity maxima
move through the mean trough position. A weak surface low is
forecast to develop near a remnant baroclinic zone over the Mid
Atlantic during the morning and then move offshore by the end of the
period. 

Scattered to widespread convection is expected within a seasonably
moist environment from the ArkLaTex into the Mid South, though weak
deep-layer shear is expected to limit the organized
severe-thunderstorm threat. Extensive convection is also expected
from coastal NC into the Mid Atlantic within a slightly stronger
flow regime, though any severe potential across quite uncertain
across that region. 

...Mid Atlantic...
Guidance varies somewhat regarding the timing and intensity of
surface cyclone development across the Mid Atlantic Tuesday morning.
The stronger solutions depict a modest increase in low-level
flow/shear during the first part of the day near the cyclone track
and surface boundary, which could potentially support a threat of
locally damaging wind gusts and/or a brief tornado as substantial
convection moves through the region. However, given the uncertainty
regarding this scenario and the relatively limited areal extent of
any potential threat before convection moves offshore, no
probabilities have been introduced at this time.

..Dean.. 09/05/2022