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Topic: SPC Sep 5, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook (Read 57 times) previous topic - next topic

SPC Sep 5, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

SPC Sep 5, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

[html]Day 4-8 Outlook
     
Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CDT Mon Sep 05 2022

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models continue to suggest low pattern predictability in the
extended range, with sizable spread concerning short wave
developments within the westerlies across the northern mid-latitude
Pacific into North America by next weekend, which grows further
through early next week.  This includes the uncertain evolution of
one short wave trough which probably will be in the process of
digging into the northern Rockies vicinity by the beginning of this
period.  Some model output has and continues to be suggestive that
this impulse may contribute to larger-scale troughing splitting off
the main belt of westerlies, with a slow moving embedded mid-level
low eventually evolving somewhere across the Great Lakes vicinity
next weekend.  But even within and among the models indicating this,
there has been substantial spread.

Regardless, it still appears that the evolution of a closed cyclonic
mid-level circulation within weaker flow across the lower
Mississippi Valley/central Gulf coast vicinity will hinder
substantive moisture return (and associated destabilization) to
continuing initial surface cyclogenesis across the eastern Canadian
Prairies into southern Hudson Bay on Thursday.  While subsequent
developments across the Great Lakes into upper Ohio Valley/Allegheny
Plateau vicinity remain unclear, at this time there appears little
signal within the guidance that suggests more than marginal or
isolated severe weather potential through this period.


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Source: SPC Sep 5, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/)